381
FXUS64 KMRX 251055
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
655 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 652 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
- WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TODAY EXPECTING WEAK SHOWERS
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, IN BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEY. BEEN CURIOUSLY WATCHING
THE CAMS FLIP FLOP RUN TO RUN ON EXTENT OF BOTH THE MORNING SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON STORMS, SO I VOTE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN AS
NATURE WANTS TO BESTOW UPON US, GIVEN THE DROUGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE NEAR TERM SPREAD OF GUIDANCE, WOULDN'T BE
EXPECTING CONSTANT RAIN ALL DAY, A FEW PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
STORMS IS A MORE REASONABLE EXPECTATION. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS
THERE'S BUST POTENTIAL FOR THOSE WHO MISS OUT ON RAIN. FORTUNATELY
THIS ISN'T THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN.
WITH SUNDAY LIKELY TO BE DRY, WE LOOK TOWARDS NEXT WEEK FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. MONDAY NIGHT HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK
UNIMPRESSIVE, WITH THE AI-IFS GUIDANCE INDICATING A REALLY LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ARRIVAL TIMES FOR STORMS. LONG RANGE
NAM HAS A STEEP SURFACE INVERSION SHOULD STORMS ARRIVE THAT LATE,
WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER STORM SEVERITY AND HAZARD TYPE,
THOUGH ELEVATED STRONG CONVECTION COULD STILL OCCUR. STILL, GIVEN
THE BREADTH OF CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS, IT'S REALLY JUST A MONITOR AND
SEE ON TIMING AND CAPE PROFILES.
HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK THE UPPER JET RE-STRENGTHENS AND A SLOWLY
SAGGING COLD FRONT ARE LIKELY TO SPUR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY
STACK UP AND LEAD TO DECENT RAINFALL RESULTS ACROSS A WIDE PORTION
OF THE REGION, EVEN IF NOT EVERY PERSON SCORES IN EVERY ROUND. THE
SWISS CHEESE MODEL OF TRYING TO ESCAPE DROUGHT VIA MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHERN LOW TO GO RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
FRONT, YIELDING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER EVEN IF WE'RE ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT BY THEN. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HELPING TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTH ALSO MEANS COOLER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF
RAIN, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH MVFR OR LESS LIKELY WITHIN
RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND FROM GENERALLY A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG POSSIBLE IN PLACES THAT RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 58 83 58 / 80 30 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 55 80 55 / 70 30 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 74 55 81 55 / 70 20 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 52 77 48 / 80 30 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BW
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