534
FXUS64 KMRX 260453
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1253 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
- WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OFF LOW AND MID
CLOUDS STILL AROUND EAST TENNESSEE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ONGOING. FURTHER WEST HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY, WITH SOME THUNDER BEING NOTED IN THE
SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ALREADY. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THESE SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW THAT ACTIVITY THEN TRANSITIONING ESE
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE TO ME, BUT THE
CURRENT TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES AREA
WIDE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING IS A REASONABLE APPROACH TOO. THIS
IS WHAT THE NBM OUTPUT
RAIN CHANCES WRAP UP TONIGHT, WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER, STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE OCCURRING IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL TIME AND
THE STRONGER DYNAMICS BEING DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHWEST SUGGEST THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT VERY HIGH FOR OUR AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NOW, BUT IF THESE TRENDS IN TIMING,
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, ETC, CONTINUE THEN THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
QUITE LOW.
HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK THE UPPER JET RE-STRENGTHENS AND A SLOWLY
SAGGING COLD FRONT ARE LIKELY TO SPUR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY
STACK UP AND LEAD TO DECENT RAINFALL RESULTS ACROSS A WIDE PORTION
OF THE REGION, EVEN IF NOT EVERY PERSON SCORES IN EVERY ROUND. THE
SWISS CHEESE MODEL OF TRYING TO ESCAPE DROUGHT VIA MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHERN LOW TO GO RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
FRONT, YIELDING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER EVEN IF WE'RE ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT BY THEN. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HELPING TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTH ALSO MEANS COOLER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
AFTER RECENT RAINFALL, FOG HAS BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION.
TRI HAS ALREADY SEEN IFR TO LIFR WITH CHA AND TYS EXPECTED TO SEE
REDUCTIONS IN THE COMING HOURS. MVFR WILL LIKELY BE MORE COMMON AT
THESE SITES, BUT IFR TO EVEN LIFR IS POSSIBLE. AFTER MORNING FOG,
IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR ARE EXPECTED. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED AT THE SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 59 82 61 / 0 10 10 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 56 83 60 / 0 0 10 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 56 83 59 / 0 0 10 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 49 80 54 / 0 0 10 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...BW
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