620
FXUS64 KMRX 261104
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
704 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 702 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
- FOG IS PRESENT THIS MORNING, BE AWARE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
- NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED EARLY TUESDAY, WITH
LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
THANKS TO THE EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS, FOG HAS FORMED, WITH NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS INDICATING VALLEY FOG
HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY PREVALENT, A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, ESPECIALLY IN FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE I-75 CORRIDOR NEAR CLEVELAND.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING, THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND
WILL YIELD A DRY SUNDAY. MONDAY IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE DRY, AS CLASSIC
PHYSICS BASED GUIDANCE HAS MOVED INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE AI-IFS ON
PUSHING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
FORTUNATELY THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL BE EJECTING TO THE FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THIS SYSTEM, KEEPING A LOT OF THE BETTER
DYNAMICS FAR TO OUR WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE,
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CAPE, ESPECIALLY ELEVATED CAPE, CAN BE
REALIZED TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STOUT
INVERSION BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND AT LEAST THE FIRST KM OF
ATMOSPHERE, SO DESPITE THE LLJ RAMPING WITH STORM ARRIVAL, NOT
EXPECTING A TORNADO THREAT.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY A WEAKER VORTICITY LOBE IN THE LARGER UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND, AND
COUPLED WITH THE RE-STRENGTHENING WESTERLY JET WILL HELP FIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SECOND SYSTEM
SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT PUSHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
TENNESSEE BY THURSDAY. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL YIELD COOLER WEATHER
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH MORNING
TEMPERATURES, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20-40% CHANCE FOR FROST
FRIENDLY TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE
INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. HIGH UNCERTAINTY BY NEXT WEEKEND ON
WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY RAIN BY THEN OR A DRY SPELL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
DENSE FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AT TYS AND TRI AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT AT CHA. IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE SITES WITH
FOG LIFTING INTO MVFR CEILINGS, FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 55 83 58 / 0 0 0 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 80 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 48 80 52 / 0 0 0 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
CLAY.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BW
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