886
FXUS64 KMRX 272321
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 233 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY
PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT TIMING,
INTENSITY, AND EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THUNDER CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
CURRENTLY, A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
SLOWLY PULLING DRIER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EAST TENNESSEE,
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. LATEST HREF/HRRR MODEL
SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS EVENING WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
THIS WEDGING WILL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MID-WEST/UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ESTABLISHES
ITSELF THIS EVENING. HREF AND HRRR SHOWS MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE MID-WEST/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 DEGREES C WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
FOR TUESDAY, POST SHORT-WAVE SUBSIDENCE AND DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CAP
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE AND UPPER JET WILL PRODUCE
GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING. DEPENDING ON HOW THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS, A GREAT
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU AND
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ENSEMBLES AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC
RUNS SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSES RATES OF 7+ DEGREE/C, DECENT HAIL GROWTH
CAPE, AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS TO PRODUCE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOW THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF
THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.
FOR THURSDAY AND PART OF FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGING WILL PRODUCE DRIER
CONDITIONS.
FOR THE LATER HALF OF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG JET DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD/MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, POSSIBLY INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL. SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. EXPECT
MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
AT CHA AND TYS, SO WILL KEEP THE PROB30 THUNDER GROUPS THERE WITH
JUST A PROB30 FOR A HEAVIER SHOWER AT TRI. CIGS/VSBY WILL DIP TO
MVFR OR LOWER WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE PREDOMINANT DURING THE PERIOD.
LOOKS BORDERLINE FOR LLWS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT
ENOUGH WINDS AT SURFACE AT CHA/TYS TO KEEP THINGS BELOW CRITERIA,
WHILE WINDS 2KFT ABOVE SURFACE LOOK A BIT WEAKER AT TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 77 64 80 / 60 60 100 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 76 61 76 / 60 60 90 100
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 75 60 76 / 70 60 90 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 73 58 71 / 60 70 80 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page