054
FXUS64 KMRX 280557
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
157 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 151 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY
PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT TIMING,
INTENSITY, AND EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THUNDER CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
CURRENTLY, A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
SLOWLY PULLING DRIER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EAST TENNESSEE,
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. LATEST HREF/HRRR MODEL
SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS EVENING WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
THIS WEDGING WILL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MID-WEST/UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ESTABLISHES
ITSELF THIS EVENING. HREF AND HRRR SHOWS MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE MID-WEST/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 DEGREES C WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
FOR TUESDAY, POST SHORT-WAVE SUBSIDENCE AND DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CAP
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE AND UPPER JET WILL PRODUCE
GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING. DEPENDING ON HOW THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS, A GREAT
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU AND
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ENSEMBLES AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC
RUNS SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSES RATES OF 7+ DEGREE/C, DECENT HAIL GROWTH
CAPE, AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS TO PRODUCE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOW THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF
THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.
FOR THURSDAY AND PART OF FRIDAY, SURFACE RIDGING WILL PRODUCE DRIER
CONDITIONS.
FOR THE LATER HALF OF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG JET DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD/MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, POSSIBLY INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL. SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. EXPECT
MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH LLWS CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN CHA AND TYS. DURING THE
STORMS, STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH QUICK REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR OR LESS, MAINLY FROM 09Z TO 13Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AS RAIN COVERAGE DECREASES.
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 77 64 80 54 / 60 100 90 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 61 76 51 / 60 90 100 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 75 60 76 50 / 60 90 100 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 58 71 48 / 70 80 100 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...BW
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