848
FXUS64 KMRX 281129
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 720 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE
MAINLY PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT TIMING,
INTENSITY, AND EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THUNDER CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS OVER THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS INTO
MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. CAM GUIDANCE HAS THESE STORMS FORMING A LINE AND FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE LINE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT, DOWNSLOPE WIND
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED IN DOWNSLOPE PRONE SPOTS.
WINDS WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN DECREASING BY DAYBREAK. 850 MB
WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. COLD
AIR DAMMING ON THE NORTH CAROLINA SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ENHANCING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND WILL INCREASE DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL TO THE
TENNESSEE FOOTHILLS.
RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE PLATEAU COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY.
TIMING AROUND 8PM TO MIDNIGHT IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
CAPPING MAYBE A LIMITING FACTOR.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE
WEAK LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. WITH GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
DECENT INSTABILITY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT, RAIN WILL CLEAR
OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RAIN. WITH LOW
INSTABILITY EXPECTED, THUNDER WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
FOR MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT THE SITES WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CURRENTLY FORECAST LATER IN THE DAY. SOME
PLACES MAY STAY MVFR FOR SOME TIME, ESPECIALLY AT TRI. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A PROB30 INITIATED AT CHA FOR
THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH COVERAGE
THERE WILL BE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 79 64 80 54 / 60 90 90 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 77 61 76 52 / 50 90 100 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 61 77 51 / 50 80 100 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 74 58 72 48 / 60 80 100 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BW
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