046
FXUS64 KMRX 290533
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. LOW POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT THE
THREAT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
- WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THUNDER CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE PLATEAU COUNTIES HAS BEEN
CANCELLED SINCE STORMS UPSTREAM IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
WEST TENNESSEE BUT WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE INCOMING RAIN AND DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
DISCUSSION:
CURRENTLY STORMS HAVE MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WELL TO OUR EAST,
BUT ARE STILL CURRENTLY ONGOING. THIS LONG LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY
GOING TO INFLUENCE THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT, SO IT'S WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON AS IT'S LIKELY INHIBITING THE ATMOSPHERE FROM RECOVERING AND
DESTABILIZING. NORTH OF THIS LINE EXPECT MORE MINOR/MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS HOPEFULLY
LOOKS TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
CANNOT COMPLETELY SAY WE'RE IN THE CLEAR, AS WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW
STRONG STORMS TO OUR WEST (CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS) MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST. IF THEY HAVE STRONG FORWARD
MOMENTUM THEY COULD BRING THEIR OWN DYNAMICS AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME ITS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE AND REALLY SQUASHES SEVERE CONVECTION.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING DAY WITH
MORE SYNOPTIC AND JET DYNAMICS LIKELY IN PLAY IN OUR AREA. MID LEVEL
JET STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND ALONG WITH IT WE'LL
SEE AN INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
CLIMB TO 6.5-7.0C/KM. THE JETS ALSO BRING WITH THEM SOME VERY DRY
MID LEVEL AIR WHICH DRAMATICALLY INCREASES THE DCAPE AS WE APPROACH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO THERE ARE 2 MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
1. WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE IN NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA
AS THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT STORMS GET AFFECTED BY BETTER JET AND
DYNAMIC FORCING THEY COULD REINVIGORATE CAUSING A BRIEF WINDOW OF
STRONG STORMS
2. LATER IN THE DAY AS WE DESTABILIZE AND HAVE STRONGER FORCING
OVERHEAD WE COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP. THESE AFTERNOON
STORMS COULD BRING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THIS AFTERNOON WINDOW IS PRETTY BRIEF, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES TO
SEE STRONG STORMS AROUND 18-22Z (4-8PM EDT).
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF PEOPLE WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE MOST OF THE NIGHT. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE S
SOUTHEAST BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RAIN. WITH LOW INSTABILITY
EXPECTED, THUNDER WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR
MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL MAKE A DIVE AT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS AND RAIN EVENTS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
FAIRLY MODERATE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
REDUCTIONS ARE ALREADY ONGOING AT CHA AND TRI AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN
WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
WILL PRODUCE FURTHER REDUCTIONS AT CHA WITH TYS EXPECTED TO REACH
MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS. THIS INITIAL RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF CHA
AND TYS BY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH THE BEST COVERAGE BEING AROUND TRI. REDUCTIONS TO AT
LEAST MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO, WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS LIKELY
BY THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 55 72 52 / 60 20 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 52 68 48 / 80 20 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 50 69 48 / 80 20 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 48 65 42 / 90 40 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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