749
FXUS64 KMRX 091855
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 243 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOTHER'S DAY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER TOMORROW EVENING, MEAGER RAINFALL TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST FOR PARTS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL MEAGER RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
BOTH HRRR AND THE NAM HAVE SOME STEEP INVERSIONS NEAR OR AT THE
SURFACE TOMORROW MORNING, SO TACKED IN SOME MENTIONS OF PATCHY FOG
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WELL, THE TREND IS NOT OUR FRIEND TO BUST THE DROUGHT. VERTICAL
PROFILES FOR TOMORROW HAVE GOTTEN MORE INHOSPITABLE TO HYDROMETEOR
PRODUCTION, WITH HARDLY ANY CAPE AROUND ON GUIDANCE, AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO MIX THE AFTERNOON RHS FAIRLY LOW. IT'LL BE A
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY TEMPERATURE WISE, BUT SHOULD BE GREAT
WEATHER FOR ANYONE WITH SURPRISE PLANS. WHEN THE FRONT AND UPPER JET
GET HERE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WE'LL GET ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TO POWER
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT THE LACK OF QUALITY
MOISTURE ADVECTION MEANS RESULTING QPF IS EXTREMELY LOW.
ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST OBVIOUS IMPACT (OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG IN THE MORNING) IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PATCHY FROST TUESDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA, ALONG WITH THE
MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE. BEYOND TUESDAY WE'LL ENTER ANOTHER
REBOUND TO WARMER WEATHER. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ATTEMPTS TO GIVE
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MUCH LIKE MONDAY MORNING ENSEMBLE QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO REALLY POOR, IF ANY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE WINDS ONCE AGAIN RELAX FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL TREND. VERY
LOW CHANCE FOR FOG TOMORROW MORNING AT THE TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 85 60 76 / 0 10 30 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 82 58 72 / 0 0 50 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 52 83 56 72 / 0 0 40 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 79 53 68 / 0 0 60 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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