525
FXUS64 KMRX 101758
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
158 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 153 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. BE CAREFUL ON YOUR
MORNING COMMUTE.
- MOSTLY DRY TODAY, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. OVERALL, LIGHT ACCUMULATION WITH
NOTHING STRONG EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY TO BRING THE NEXT POTENTIAL
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL.
- THE HEAT GETS TURNED UP NEXT WEEKEND WITH 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREE
HIGHS IN THE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THERE IS THE POSSIBILTY OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, SO IF
YOU WILL BE COMMUTING EARLY ON THIS MOTHER'S DAY, TAKE CAUTION.
TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
QUASIZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO SUCH, THE
LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND LATE TONIGHT. IN
FACT, IT WILL BE QUITE DRY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MINIMUM RHS FALLING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S PERCENT RANGE. TOTAL QPF FROM THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE NORTH AND GENERALLY LIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS IN
THE HUNDREDTH TO TENTH RANGE. BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S EXIT,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INDUCED SHOWERS MAY KEEP THE CHANCES GOING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MARKEDLY COOLER TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TUESDAY MORNING HAS LESSENED WITH THIS LATEST
FORECAST. LOWS MAY BE NEAR 40 OR WARMER NOW INSTEAD OF IN THE UPPER
30S. STILL PERHAPS A CHANCE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SW VIRGINIA
AND NE TENNESSEE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SHIFT DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
AND TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS IT WILL STAY WELL NORTH. SO, ANOTHER CHANCE OF POSSIBLE
LIGHT ACCUMULATION MID-WEEK.
AFTER COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN AND BRING SOME HOT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. THE LOCKED IN
TROUGHING WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST AND BE REPLACED BY RIDGING FROM
THE WEST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WEEK BEYOND THE
FORECAST, ACCORDING TO THE CPC. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. TAFS TO REMAIN VFR AND DRY UNTIL ROUGHLY 12Z, WHEN
UNCERTAINTY OVER MVFR POTENTIAL INCREASES WHILE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NOT
CONFIDENT IF ANY TERMINAL WILL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT SOME
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT REGION WIDE. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH A
NORTHERLY PIVOT WITH THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 76 52 79 / 20 30 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 73 48 76 / 20 50 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 73 47 76 / 40 50 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 69 42 73 / 40 60 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page