386
FXUS64 KMRX 121725
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- COOL START TODAY, WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE
SUNNY AND PLEASANT.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN HIGHEST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY ARE ALSO
EXPECTED.
- IF YOU'VE BEEN WAITING ON SUMMER, IT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
TODAY WILL BE PLEASANT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD AND
PLENTY OF SUN THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT. DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR LOW ELEVATION AREAS AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80
FOR THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES RAMP UP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT TO OUR
NORTH. LESSER RAIN CHANCES EXIST IN THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS, QPF WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT, WITH WELL LESS THAN 0.10" EXPECTED.
THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRONGER STORM IMPACTING OUR
FAR NORTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
JOINT PROBABILITIES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR AT LEAST 300 J/KG
WORTH OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30KT OF SHEAR FOR WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, THE ODDS OF SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WED
SEEM PRETTY LOW OVERALL. ADDITIONALLY, H85 WINDS INCREASE WED WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. SOME 20 TO 30 MPH
GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, FOLLOWED UP A QUICK WARMUP ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
RETURNS. LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THE
LOW 90S THEN CREEP INTO THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY BY MONDAY. LATEST
MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ON
SATURDAY WITH NEW NBM POPS COMING IN AROUND 30% CHANCE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEAR TERM BUT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKUP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 82 54 76 / 0 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 79 51 72 / 0 50 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 79 49 72 / 0 50 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 74 45 66 / 0 60 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99
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