811
FXUS64 KMRX 152318
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 710 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S
TO AROUND 90 BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
CURRENTLY THIS AFTERNOON, A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH RECENT HEIGHT
RISES ALLOWING FOR THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. ON SATURDAY,
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST, LEADING TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES APPROACH FROM THE NORTH DUE TO THE
JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BUT OUR REGION STILL LOOKS TO STAY DRY.
BY SUNDAY, RIDGING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF
DEEPENING TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER HEIGHT RISES AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST PLACES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
BY MONDAY, THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS, LEADING TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
THE EASTERN U.S. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REACH 5,880 TO 5,900 METERS,
TYPICAL OF JULY. THIS MAKES THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE REGION TO
REACH OR EXCEED THE 90-DEGREE MARK. BY TUESDAY, THE GREAT PLAINS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP INTO CANADA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING
UP TO THE WEST. AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES LATER IN THE
WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LOCALLY. CURRENTLY, THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER WITH LIMITED SHEAR
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. AT A MINIMUM, HOPEFULLY MUCH NEEDED RAIN
IS RECEIVED BY SOME, BUT DROUGHT IS LIKELY TO WORSEN WITH THE HEAT
BEFOREHAND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME LOW END GUSTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT TYS WITH A WIND DIRECTION FAVORABLE FOR WIND
FUNNELING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 86 62 90 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 85 60 89 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 82 57 87 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...MCD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page