552
FXUS64 KMRX 161144
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 733 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- UNSEASONABLY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS FOR
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
TERRAIN FEATURES FOR SUNDAY. DUE TO CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE SLOW AND FEEL NBM DEWPOINTS/RH ARE TOO HIGH. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DRIER ENVIRONMENT GFS QPF IS LIKELY WAY OVERDONE. ENSEMBLE
QPF ALSO SHOWS A DRIER BIAS WITH THE STORMS SUNDAY. OVERALL, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION
BY WEDNESDAY HELPING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ENSEMBLE MEAN CAPE SUGGEST VALUES OF 1000-1500 BUT SHEAR IS QUITE
LIMITED. OVERALL, INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SHEAR DO NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, ENSEMBLE SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY PULLING SOUTHWARD
KEEPING SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED WITH VALUES OF 500 OR LESS.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS BETWEEN 0.25 AND
0.5 INCH WHICH WILL DO LIMITED HELP WITH ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR AND DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST. A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS AT TYS
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 62 90 65 / 0 0 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 61 90 65 / 0 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 60 89 63 / 0 0 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 57 87 60 / 0 0 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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