381
FXUS64 KMRX 231853
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
253 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH NO RELIEF IN SIGHT UNTIL
POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING ATOP THE WESTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD THAT HAS BROUGHT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CAN BE NOTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE PER THIS
DISCUSSION. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THIS WILL REMAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 WHERE A BETTER MLCAPE GRADIENT EXISTS DUE
GREATER TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION POST SOAKING RAINS. LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SEVERE
WEATHER UNLIKELY.
ADDITIONAL IMPULSE TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. LATEST CAMS
ADMITTEDLY STRUGGLE WITH PIN-POINTING AN EXACT AREA AND TIME, BUT
ULTIMATELY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL EXPERIENCE THE
GREATEST PROBABILITIES. THOUGH, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
MORNING PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND VALLEY.
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM TYPE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO GIVEN A LACK OF SHEAR WITH NO STANDOUT LLJ PRESENT, AND
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SOUTH OF 6C/KM. MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG
AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5-1.7"(NEAR DAILY MAX PER KBNA SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY) IN LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP LOADING IN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
SHAPE INTO AN OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES
WILL FURTHER PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE, THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO A MUGGY AND STICKY
FEELING AIRMASS FOR THE PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
PREDOMINANT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TRI FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORM MAY POP UP
NEAR TYS OR CHA, THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW SO ONLY
INCLUDED BRIEF PROB30S AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL BE LARGELY
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT CHA OVERNIGHT, THERE IS POTENTIAL SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION OCCURS WITH THIS BUT HAVE LEFT AS VCSH DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. HREF PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS AT
TRI/TYS GENERALLY REMAIN 10% OR LESS TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 82 65 82 / 70 80 60 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 83 64 82 / 50 70 40 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 82 63 81 / 70 70 60 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 83 60 82 / 20 80 50 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS
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