558
FXUS64 KMRX 232323
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 651 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH NO RELIEF IN SIGHT UNTIL
POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING ATOP THE WESTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD THAT HAS BROUGHT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CAN BE NOTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE PER THIS
DISCUSSION. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THIS WILL REMAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 WHERE A BETTER MLCAPE GRADIENT EXISTS DUE
GREATER TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION POST SOAKING RAINS. LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SEVERE
WEATHER UNLIKELY.
ADDITIONAL IMPULSE TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. LATEST CAMS
ADMITTEDLY STRUGGLE WITH PIN-POINTING AN EXACT AREA AND TIME, BUT
ULTIMATELY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL EXPERIENCE THE
GREATEST PROBABILITIES. THOUGH, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
MORNING PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND VALLEY.
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM TYPE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO GIVEN A LACK OF SHEAR WITH NO STANDOUT LLJ PRESENT, AND
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SOUTH OF 6C/KM. MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG
AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5-1.7"(NEAR DAILY MAX PER KBNA SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY) IN LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP LOADING IN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
SHAPE INTO AN OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES
WILL FURTHER PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE, THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO A MUGGY AND STICKY
FEELING AIRMASS FOR THE PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND DURING THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE FOR ANY GIVEN SITE.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FIRST AT CHA THEN TYS AND FINALLY TRI, AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT CHA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF FOG/LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT TRI. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR
CIG/VSBY GROUP IN FOG AT TRI FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 82 65 82 / 70 80 60 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 83 64 82 / 50 70 40 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 82 63 81 / 70 70 60 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 83 60 82 / 20 80 50 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99
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