412
FXUS64 KMRX 241741
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE HUMID WITH NO RELIEF IN SIGHT UNTIL
POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
GUSTY WINDS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
E TN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE WINDS IS OCCURRING. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 AM.
WE STAY IN A WET PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL MEANDER A BIT BUT NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO
OUR AREA.
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING OF PEAK COVERAGE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. MODELS SHOW PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5-1.8"(NEAR DAILY
MAX OF KBNA SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY) SUNDAY, AND SHEAR GENERALLY LOOKS
LIMITED WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN 6C/KM. RAIN RATES
SHOULD BE HIGH BUT THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH SUNDAY'S
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
(WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION), WE
MAY SEE A FEW STORMS BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TIMING INFLUENCED BY ADDITIONAL WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW, BUT WITH AFTERNOONS EXPECTED TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVERALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR
ANY AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED OR PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO A HUMID AND STICKY FEELING AIRMASS FOR
THE PERIOD AS WELL.
SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE FRONT COULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON THIS SCENARIO FOR NOW,
AND THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE NBM SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN
BOTH DAYS, ALBEIT WITH POPS TRENDING A BIT LOWER BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINTAIN
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCHA BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS, BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE THEY TRANSITION TO
LOW VFR FOR A FEW BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS, HREF PROBS OF MVFR OR
CIGS INCREASE TO THE 40-70% RANGE FOR TYS/TRI MONDAY MORNING, SO
HAVE INCLUDED A TRANSITION TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE SITES AS
WELL. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SOME FOG OR BR DEVELOP
DUE TO SATURATED PBL TONIGHT, BUT DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER,
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 65 80 66 / 90 70 90 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 65 80 65 / 90 70 90 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 80 63 79 64 / 90 80 80 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 61 80 62 / 90 70 80 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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