635
FXUS64 KMRX 261756
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE.
- STORM CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT THE
TREND IS TO SEE LONGER AND LONGER PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AND SMALLER
WINDOWS OF STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN MODERATE ALL WEEK, BUT WILL FEEL MUGGY WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60'S TO 70'S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF EXPECTED SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A
MEANDERING TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS WRITING
THE AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH TO FIRE OFF, LIKELY DUE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. STILL EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE, BUT MANY MORE PEOPLE SHOULD STAY FAIRLY DRY
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENINGS.
TOMORROW EXPECT A SIMILAR STORY WITH A MOSTLY DRY MORNING AND
INCREASING STORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THE STORMS THE FLOODING RISK SHOULD BE LOWER
THAN IT WAS OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL COULD SEE A SLOW MOVING STORM
DEVELOP OVER A URBAN AREA CAUSING QUICK FLOODING, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
PATTERN STAYS FAIRLY MOIST AND MODERATELY ACTIVE WITH REGARDS TO
STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. COVERAGE MIGHT DECREASE EVEN
FURTHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO GET A SHOVE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND WE COULD
BE SITTING ON THE DRIER NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER IF
THE FRONT DOESN'T MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THEN WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK
IN RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN LOOKS TO TRY
AND BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DOING
A POOR JOB TRYING TO HANDLE WHAT HAPPENS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
BLOCK. WE COULD SEE A TROUGH/LOW DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST,
BUT THAT'S PRETTY ATYPICAL SYNOPTICALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR SO AM NOT
QUITE READY TO BITE OFF ON THAT SOLUTION YET.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST AS HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS MOST DAYS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
LIKELY IN THE 60'S TO LOW 70'S MEANING THAT EVEN WITH THE MODERATE
TEMPERATURES IT WILL FEEL MUGGY OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH 30-60 MINUTES OF STORMS OVER AN AIRPORT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER THE SUN SETS
THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 82 66 84 / 50 60 50 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 82 65 82 / 50 80 70 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 65 81 64 82 / 50 80 60 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 80 62 81 / 50 70 90 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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