603
FXUS64 KMRX 281907
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 302 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS
AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AMONG CONTINUED SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK THROUGH THE CWA WHILE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION NUDGES INTO THE
AREA. SOME ISOLATED TO WEAKLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-40 AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOST WILL
REMAIN DRY. WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS POST FROPA, THERE ARE
NO NOTABLE CONCERNS FOR WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT DESPITE RECENT
RAINS.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING OR PERHAPS THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY EVENING, AN IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT AND DIRECT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BACK NORTHWARD.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKE A RETURN
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THIS FRONT MEANDERS THE
AREA. PWAT WILL RETURN TO 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES AND LATEST HRRR
SOUNDINGS DEPICT TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WITH FREEZING LEVELS
NEAR 14KFT, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS
WHERE ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TRAIN OVER ONE LOCATION. MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FORECAST FEATURES CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP(30-50%), ALBEIT, A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS
MORE BULLISH AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WHERE AS THE
LATEST NAM, WHICH JUST REACHES INTO THIS TIME PERIOD, IS STARTING TO
SUGGEST A DRIER SOLUTION WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING MORE
INFLUENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE POP CHANCES TREND
DOWNWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GOING INTO THE MID-WEEK, MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A TYPICAL OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN BECOMING
MORE PROMINENT. THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE DRIER
CONDITIONS AMONG SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF CYCLE. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, AND THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A QUICK SHOWER COULD
IMPACT TYS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LIGHTNING/THUNDER NEAR CHA. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 83 66 81 / 10 40 90 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 86 66 79 / 0 30 80 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 85 65 79 / 0 20 80 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 85 60 80 / 0 0 20 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS
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