083
FXUS64 KMRX 290601
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
201 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- MOISTURE RETURNS TODAY, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A SURFACE FRONT SITS SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NW ACROSS THE REGION. THROUGH THE NIGHT, 850 MB
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NE TO S IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AR/MS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
PRONOUNCED GRADIENT OF PW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, FROM 1.9
AT CHA TO 1.1 AT TRI. BY TONIGHT, THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE
RETREATED AND CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE TN VALLEY. TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST EFFICIENT
WARM CLOUD PROCESSES, AND A SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL HELP
FOCUS AND SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
PRECIP WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING CELLS THAT COULD
DUMP 1-2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THIS THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD AND PUSH DRIER AIR INTO OUR
AREA, LOWERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NBM'S LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE CUT BACK TO A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE.
AN EAST COAST TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER TO GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST TN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BREAKS
DOWN AND GULF MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS REGION
AND WESTERN TN VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TN/GA BORDER THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH LATER TODAY. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THEM AS EARLY
AS 16-18Z, BUT WILL SIDE WITH LATER GUIDANCE. ALSO, COVERAGE SEEMS
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A PROB30 AT KCHA AND
KTYS FOR THE MOMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 66 81 64 / 40 90 90 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 66 79 61 / 30 80 80 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 65 79 60 / 20 80 80 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 60 80 56 / 0 20 30 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
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