810
FXUS64 KMRX 291828
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
228 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- MOISTURE RETURNING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT SITS SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NW ACROSS THE REGION AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE IS SPREADING BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA, AND PW VALUES
WILL BE AROUND THE 1.6 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CAPE VALUES DO NOT LOOK HIGH BUT THE TALL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PROCESSES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING
BACK INTO OUR AREA WILL ACT TO FOCUS AND SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY TRAINING
CELLS DEVELOP. WHILE FLOODING ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED,
THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING TO
WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
THREAT LOOKS TO BE IN A SWATH ACROSS AND NEAR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL TN MOUNTAINS, BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS
AS WELL.
BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE CONUS
WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD AND PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE
SOME CONVECTION ESPECIALLY SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, SETTING
UP A DRIER PERIOD FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. RAIN CHANCES MAY TICK BACK UP
BY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, BUT IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MAKES IT TO TRI
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS BACK SOUTH. WILL TRY TO TIME
HIGHEST PROBABILITY PERIODS WITH PROB30 AND/OR TEMPO GROUPS. NO
MENTION OF THUNDER AT TRI AS PROBABILITY THERE IS LOWER. ALSO
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR (AND POSSIBLY LOWER) AT CHA AND TYS
FOR PERIOD LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 82 64 79 / 80 70 20 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 80 61 81 / 90 80 10 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 65 80 60 80 / 90 80 0 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 82 56 81 / 60 40 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH
SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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