534
FXUS64 KMRX 300537
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER MIDDLE/WEST
TN, WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS AL/GA.
THIS IS PRODUCING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER EAST TN, WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT IN A MOIST AIR MASS
OF PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT, AROUND 09Z IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TN VALLEY, BETWEEN TYS AND TRI. RAIN
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MOVE
SLOWLY OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAD HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON, SUCH AS BLOUNT/SEVIER COUNTIES AND
MORGAN/SCOTT/CAMPBELL COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, PRECIP WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES SOUTH AND ESTABLISHES A NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA THAT WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS RETURN LATE SUNDAY WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NW FLOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE
NW FLOW AND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ON MONDAY.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, SETTING
UP A DRIER PERIOD FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. RAIN CHANCES MAY TICK BACK UP
BY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED
TSRA AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE PROB30
GROUPS IN FOR THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING
TERMINALS HOWEVER. IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF CONVECTION, MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN, WITH DRIER AIR AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOWING BY THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 66 80 64 / 70 10 40 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 61 82 63 / 80 10 50 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 60 81 63 / 70 0 50 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 56 82 60 / 40 0 10 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-
NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page