198
FXUS64 KMRX 311056 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
656 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 648 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND A FEW STORMS
MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, MARKED BY A
DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM AROUND 70 SOUTH TO AROUND 50 NORTH. IT WILL
BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SUNRISE, AND A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TODAY. A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF FRONT
ACROSS GA, BUT THE WESTERN PORTIONS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM AL INTO
MIDDLE TN AND NEAR OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES WITH A NW-SE ORIENTATION. AS
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NW FLOW, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRACK ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING. SURFACE CAPE ISN'T VERY IMPRESSIVE, ONLY 500-800 J/KG, SO A
SEVERE THREAT IS UNLIKELY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE FORM OF AN UPSTREAM MCS. THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO
HAVE A POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS, WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
2000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT, AND DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG.
LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NW AND FAIRLY WEAK DO NOT FAVOR ADEQUATE
SRH FOR A TORNADO THREAT. WIND/HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH STORMS. THE CAVEAT IS THAT THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW THE
CAMS ARE DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY, WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE TO BRING IT IN OUR AREA, WHILE THE HIRES-ARW KEEPS IT
FARTHER WEST IN MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN AL. THE FV3 HAS A LATER
ARRIVAL TIME THAN THE HRRR. THE WORDING IN THE HWO WILL BE BEEFED UP
FOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.
ON TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES DOMINANT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT, A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS A LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA IN EAST TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BETWEEN
20Z-22Z, THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY. STILL EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE GOING WITH MORE THAN A
PROB30 AT KTYS AND KCHA, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT KTRI. REGARDING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES, MVFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
APPROACHING SHRA/TSRA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS LINGER
OVERNIGHT, SO WILL STICK WITH A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS AFTER SHOWERS
DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 64 85 65 / 40 30 30 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 64 82 61 / 40 40 50 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 63 82 60 / 30 40 60 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 61 81 56 / 0 10 50 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD
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