246
FXUS64 KMRX 010600
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
200 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
- STORMS MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS, BUT THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL
ON UPSTREAM STORMS MOVING INTO OUR AREA.
- AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY, A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE THREAT OF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE MCS IS
IN QUESTION, WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS IMPACTS IN OUR AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON WHETHER IT WILL
ENTER OUR CWA OR NOT - THE FV3 AND NAM-NEST KEEP IT TO OUR SW, WHILE
THE HRRR DEVELOPS STORMS ALONG ITS NE OUTFLOW THAT TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE KEEPING THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN WEST AND
MIDDLE TN/MS/AL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL GET STORMS, BUT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL IF THEY DO HAPPEN. AT CHA, MLCAPE VALUES IN NAM
SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND 1800 J/KG, EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
40 KT, DCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1100 J/KG, AND WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
AROUND 10 KFT. TIMING OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE
BETWEEN 18-22Z. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL NOT SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT. HOPEFULLY THE CAMS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THIS MCS WITH LATER RUNS WHEN IT HAS FORMED.
ON TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES DOMINANT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CLOSE LOW ROTATES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT UNDER THIS TROUGH WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT CREATING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5-8 C/KM AND WBZ HEIGHTS
AROUND 8 KFT.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TN AND INTO NORTHERN AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT BOTH KCHA AND KTYS. CHANCES ARE
HIGHER AT KCHA BUT WILL WAIT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE
BEFORE INCLUDING ANY TEMPO OR PREVAILING TSRA AT EITHER SITE.
OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL
AFTER THE PASSING OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 66 81 59 / 70 40 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 61 80 56 / 30 20 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 60 80 55 / 30 20 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 57 77 51 / 10 10 30 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD
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