368
FXUS64 KMRX 011121 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 716 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
- STORMS MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS, BUT THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL
ON UPSTREAM STORMS MOVING INTO OUR AREA.
- AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY, A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE THREAT OF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE MCS IS
IN QUESTION, WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS IMPACTS IN OUR AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON WHETHER IT WILL
ENTER OUR CWA OR NOT - THE FV3 AND NAM-NEST KEEP IT TO OUR SW, WHILE
THE HRRR DEVELOPS STORMS ALONG ITS NE OUTFLOW THAT TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE KEEPING THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN WEST AND
MIDDLE TN/MS/AL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL GET STORMS, BUT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL IF THEY DO HAPPEN. AT CHA, MLCAPE VALUES IN NAM
SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND 1800 J/KG, EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
40 KT, DCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1100 J/KG, AND WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
AROUND 10 KFT. TIMING OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE
BETWEEN 18-22Z. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL NOT SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT. HOPEFULLY THE CAMS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THIS MCS WITH LATER RUNS WHEN IT HAS FORMED.
ON TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES DOMINANT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CLOSE LOW ROTATES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT UNDER THIS TROUGH WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT CREATING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5-8 C/KM AND WBZ HEIGHTS
AROUND 8 KFT.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CATEGORIES EXIST ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY 16Z. SOME ISOLD SHRA
WILL MOVE THROUGH NE TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE
RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LINE
OF SHRA/TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CLEAR
ALL SITES BY 01-02Z AT THE LATEST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 66 81 59 / 70 40 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 61 80 56 / 30 20 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 60 80 55 / 30 20 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 57 77 51 / 10 10 30 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD
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