049
FXUS64 KMRX 040522
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
- THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LOW DEW POINTS AND A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START,
THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT CERTAINTY IS
LOWER DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY EDGE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY THIS WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT OF THE BLOCKING HIGH, OUR AREA WILL BE IN A DRY PATTERN
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRY TO PHASE IN
WITH THE MEAN FLOW DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US. ODDS
ARE GOOD THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY, BUT THE WEAK FLOW PAIRED WITH A POSSIBLE WEST TO EAST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER US OR TO THE NORTH, MAKES ANY DETAILS AT THIS
TIME FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE, DECREASING THE STABILITY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...CD
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