228
FXUS64 KMRX 051818
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
218 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 215 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- THE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BUT THIS FRONT WILL
STALL TO OUR NORTH. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THIS WEEKEND AS A BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TO ONTARIO CANADA, BUT EVENTUALLY THE REMNANTS OF
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MAKE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE TUES/WED
TIME FRAME. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGING RE-ASSERTS
ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING BY SUNDAY, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY
AT BEST (OUTSIDE OF THE NAM WHICH RIGHT NOW IS AN OUTLIER), BUT PWAT
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH AND
ANY CAPE WILL LIKELY BE OF THE TALL SKINNY VARIETY RESULTING IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
NO STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
COMING WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WE WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RIGHT NOW, SHEAR
GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOK VERY LOW
OVERALL. HOWEVER, MODEL PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES OR MORE AT TIMES, AND THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN ANY AREAS THAT
SEE REPEATED OR PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND LESS THAN 10KTS
DURING THE DAY, WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 88 68 86 / 0 0 10 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 88 67 87 / 0 0 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 86 65 85 / 0 0 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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