784
FXUS64 KMRX 061743
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
143 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY SUNDAY
THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.
- LOTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE MEANS WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVENTUALLY FLOODING THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
CURRENTLY ANOTHER DAY OF CALM WEATHER AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE
SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BUT WINDS HAVE TURNED
MORE SOUTHERLY SO OUR DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE TICKING UP AS
A LOW/TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRY AND MAKE INROADS INTO THE RIDGE THAT'S
BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, BUT LOOKS TO LOSE OUT AND REMAIN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE TOMORROW AND PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE GET INTO A MORE HOT AND HUMID PATTERN.
GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60'S TO LOW 70'S WILL BE IN PLAY FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AND
PROVIDE TIMES OF ENHANCED COVERAGE, BUT EVEN WITHOUT THAT THE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES MEANS WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE RETURN OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
TO SEE AN EXTREMELY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING
AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY EFFECTIVE RAIN-MAKERS.
THE PROFILE SOUNDINGS SHOW TALL, SKINNY CAPE WHICH HINTS AT
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION, AND WOULD ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT A BIT (ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE IT). THERE IS NO
MAJOR STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LONGER RANGE MODELS TO TRY AND
DEPICT, SO IT'S HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING
MAY BE NEXT WEEK. AS THE WEEK CONTINUES ON AND WE SEE SOME PLACES
GET MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY STORMS EXPECT TO SEE THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASE, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
LOCATION AT THIS TIME IS VERY LOW UNTIL WE SEE WHERE EARLY WEEK
STORMS AND RAINFALL END UP OCCURRING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS, EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RAIN TRYING TO CREEP IN AROUND KCHA IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THIS TAF CYCLE, AND EVENTUALLY WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE
RAIN CHANCES AT ALL SITES FOR TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 83 69 82 / 0 60 40 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 87 69 84 / 0 10 20 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 65 85 67 83 / 0 10 30 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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