622
FXUS64 KMRX 100503
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
103 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS WILL
PRESENT A THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TOO.
- FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE A SHORT
REPRIEVE OF MUGGY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER SLUG OF HIGH PWAT AIR MOVES IN ON MONDAY FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM OUR FAR WESTERN VA COUNTIES, SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SMOKIES AND INTO OUR WESTERN NC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. ALOFT,
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN
REGION TODAY, SKIRTING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SOUTH
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE, A
LINE OF SHOWERS IS ALIGNED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
IS SITUATED BELOW THIS TROUGH, STRETCHING FROM OUR VA COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SMOKIES AND INTO FAR WESTERN NC THIS
AFTERNOON. PWATS REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.9". WITH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET OF FREEZING LEVELS,
BOTH OF WHICH ARE ABOVE 13K FT AGL, THE COMBINATION OF EFFICIENT
WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PWATS WILL INCENTIVES HIGH RAINFALL
RATES IN WHAT CONVECTION IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR AREAS AROUND AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR,
BOTH 1HR AND 3HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY BELOW 2
INCHES. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISN'T EXPECTED, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. I DON'T BELIEVE A WATCH IS
NECESSARY, BUT WE'LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY. FOR
TOMORROW, SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT, WITH ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF KENTUCKY
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOME THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
OVERHEAD. SOME TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN IS
EXPECTED BUT IF I HAD TO BET I THINK STAY DRY IN THE VALLEY.
ON FRIDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS AREAS FROM OUR FAR NORTHERN VA COUNTIES, FURTHER
NORTHEAST HIGHLIGHTED IN A DAY 4 RISK AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THERE'S A POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FURTHER SOUTH
IN OUR CWA THOUGH, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE CONCERN THERE.
HOWEVER, DETAILS ARE STILL A LITTLE TOO UNCERTAIN TO GET TERRIBLY
CONCERNED ABOUT IT JUST YET. POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR FILTERS IN OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. THEN, SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THERE'S A POSSIBILITY OF MORE HEAVY RAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR REDUCTIONS. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE, BUT FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME
BEING. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE, ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE AROUND TRI WITH VCTS
ADDED, IN ADDITION TO A PROB30. TYS HAS SOME CHANCES FOR IMPACT,
BUT ONLY A PROB30 WAS ADDED. CHA HAS RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN GENERAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 91 73 91 / 0 10 0 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 91 72 90 / 20 20 10 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 90 71 89 / 10 20 0 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 88 68 89 / 30 50 20 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...BW
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