526
FXUS64 KMRX 100627
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
227 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER
NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING STILL
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW.
- PERSISTENT MUGGINESS AND INCREASED HEAT EACH DAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, EVEN AFTER THE COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
TODAY WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHING AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY TO THOSE FEATURES EXITING, RIDGING BUILDING IN, AND THUS
PWS DROPPING. CAMS TRY TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST VA AS
EARLY AS SUNRISE OR AFTER. POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE THE
LOWEST THEY'VE BEEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MAY EVEN SKIP PRECIPITATION TODAY. THUS, BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR NORTHEAST TN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA TODAY. EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT IS STILL THERE, 00Z
HREF AND RRFS DO SHOW PW VALUES DROPPING THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE
END OF THE DAY TODAY, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD IN.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN, SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE OF THE TYPICAL
SUMMER VARIETY TOMORROW WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE TERRAIN AND A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD VERY WELL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH 70S DEW POINTS UNFORTUNATELY STICKING AROUND. A COLD FRONT
AROUND THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF RELIEF
FROM HIGHS IN THE VALLEY MAXING NEAR 90 AND THOSE NASTY DEW POINTS.
DRY WEATHER DOESN'T APPEAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH DAILY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ACCORDING TO MODELS. ALTHOUGH, DEEP TROUGHING NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS WE
MAY POSSIBLY GET A BREAK FROM THE 90S TEMPERATURES AFTER FRIDAY; LOW
80S ARE BEING HINTED AT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR REDUCTIONS. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE, BUT FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME
BEING. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE, ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE AROUND TRI WITH VCTS
ADDED, IN ADDITION TO A PROB30. TYS HAS SOME CHANCES FOR IMPACT,
BUT ONLY A PROB30 WAS ADDED. CHA HAS RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN GENERAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 71 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 72 92 73 / 20 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 88 70 91 71 / 20 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 68 90 69 / 70 30 30 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW
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