737
FXUS64 KMRX 101307
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
907 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 850 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER
NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING STILL
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW.
- PERSISTENT MUGGINESS AND INCREASED HEAT EACH DAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, EVEN AFTER THE COLD
FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW DEPARTING SHOWERS
IN OUR TN/NC MOUNTAINS AND ALSO OVER THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF
OUR VA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE RADAR IS PRETTY CLEAR. LOOKING AT
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING, THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TODAY. THE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WERE LARGELY TIED TO UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ALOFT. THAT IS SHIFTING EAST OF US AT THE MOMENT AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL SUBTLY BUILD BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS WOULD POINT TO
FAR LESS RAIN CHANCES THAN THE NBM WAS ADVERTISING. IT'S HARD TO
SAY THERE WON'T BE ANY ACTIVITY LATER ON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE VA
COUNTIES AND THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WE'RE IN A HIGH PWAT AIR MASS,
IT'S HOT, AND THE RIDGE ALOFT IS NEITHER EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG, OR
RAPIDLY INCREASING. I WOULD EXPECT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER
ON, ESPECIALLY OVER THOSE AREAS JUST MENTIONED. HOWEVER MOST
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST TODAY WILL LARGELY BE DRY, AND I WOULD TEND
TO AGREE. MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THE DAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. I THINK TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE SO NO CHANGES THERE. HIGHS AROUND 90 SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
VALLEY TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY STILL AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
70 AND RESULTING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
TODAY WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHING AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY TO THOSE FEATURES EXITING, RIDGING BUILDING IN, AND THUS
PWS DROPPING. CAMS TRY TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST VA AS
EARLY AS SUNRISE OR AFTER. POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE THE
LOWEST THEY'VE BEEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MAY EVEN SKIP PRECIPITATION TODAY. THUS, BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR NORTHEAST TN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA TODAY. EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT IS STILL THERE, 00Z
HREF AND RRFS DO SHOW PW VALUES DROPPING THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE
END OF THE DAY TODAY, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD IN.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN, SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE OF THE TYPICAL
SUMMER VARIETY TOMORROW WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE TERRAIN AND A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD VERY WELL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH 70S DEW POINTS UNFORTUNATELY STICKING AROUND. A COLD FRONT
AROUND THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF RELIEF
FROM HIGHS IN THE VALLEY MAXING NEAR 90 AND THOSE NASTY DEW POINTS.
DRY WEATHER DOESN'T APPEAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH DAILY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ACCORDING TO MODELS. ALTHOUGH, DEEP TROUGHING NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS WE
MAY POSSIBLY GET A BREAK FROM THE 90S TEMPERATURES AFTER FRIDAY; LOW
80S ARE BEING HINTED AT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
MVFR HAS DEVELOPED AT TRI WITH CHA AND TYS REMAINING VFR FOR THE
TIME BEING. IMPROVEMENTS ARE LIKELY AT TRI IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AROUND TYS BUT TO A MUCH
LESSER DEGREE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
WEST. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VFR
CONTINUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 71 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 72 92 73 / 0 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 88 70 91 71 / 10 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 68 90 69 / 40 30 30 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...BW
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