107
FXUS64 KMRX 121816
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
216 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 211 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY, AND A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- TURNING COOLER AND DRIER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA, AND A WEAK SUMMERTIME FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. CURRENTLY, MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500 TO 2000+ J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHEAR IS WEAK, SO THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A MUCH LOWER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. PWAT VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 2 INCH RANGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IF ANY AREAS SEE
REPEATED OR PROLONGED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN. CAMS HAVE BEEN HANDLING
THE CONVECTION EXTREMELY POORLY OVERALL, WHICH IS NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. HOW MUCH IF ANY
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE INITIAL
CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN, ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE CAMS DO SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VA
AND NE TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH IS THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE BETTER FORCING. THESE NORTHERN AREAS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE THE
MOST UNDER THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FURTHER SOUTH IS NON-ZERO.
WEAK SUMMERTIME FRONTS DO NOT OFTEN LEND THEMSELVES TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW FAR THEY WILL PROGRESS BEFORE STALLING AND THIS
ONE IS NOT AN EXCEPTION TO THE RULE, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL STALL NOT FAR FROM OUR SOUTHERN BORDER BY EARLY
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN WOULD BE THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, DRAGGING A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL
MATTER AND ARE STILL UNCLEAR, BUT ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND SLIGHTLY MORE SHEAR THAN TODAY,
AND A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE COMING WORK
WEEK. OVERALL, WE WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE
AROUND EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT OVERALL THE NBM ENSEMBLE APPROACH
SHOWS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND AT
TIMES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AGAIN LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT CHA. WILL TRY TO TIME PERIODS
OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 THUNDER GROUPS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS, WILL GO WITH A VFR FORECAST.
HOWEVER, SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 90 72 88 / 20 30 30 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 89 70 86 / 60 20 40 100
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 88 70 85 / 50 20 50 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 88 66 85 / 50 10 40 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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