413
FXUS64 KMRX 152344
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 734 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
- DRY AND SEASONALLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE
TO REPEATED RAINFALL.
- DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES BY LATER ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
CURRENTLY THIS AFTERNOON, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS TO OUR SOUTH WITH THIS PATTERN PROMOTING NORTHERLY FLOW
AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY, TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY
COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ON WEDNESDAY, THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST, MAKING WAY FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ON THURSDAY. A BROAD WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAA, BUT
OVERALL MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN CHANCES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE 850MB JET COULD ALSO
PRODUCE NEAR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ON THURSDAY, THE SURFACE LOW AND BROAD JET WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH, BUT THERE ARE VARYING INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE AND SMALL
JET STREAK MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
AND CONTINUED WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION, IN ADDITION TO
LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MANY SOURCES ARE SUGGESTING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO REACH OR EXCEED 6.5 C/KM AND MLCAPE REACHING
1,500 TO 2,000 J/KG OR HIGHER. OVERALL SHEAR IS CERTAINLY MORE
LIMITED THAN PLACES TO OUR NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET AND
SURFACE LOW BUT STILL IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. WHILE MOST HIGH-RES
SOURCES HAVE YET TO SEE INTO THE EVENT, THE RRFS MODEL SUGGESTS
ROBUST CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLY
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, REPEATED
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FOCUS SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS A LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT.
BY FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION, GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
FRONT IS PULLED BACK NORTHWARD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MOST GUIDANCE
HINTING MID-LEVEL CIG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL CLEARING OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND AT 10KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 81 65 87 / 0 10 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 81 64 87 / 0 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 81 62 86 / 0 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 80 59 85 / 0 0 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS
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