679
FXUS64 KMRX 162352 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
752 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 744 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- A SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
CURRENTLY THIS AFTERNOON, BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RECEDING TO THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW IS MOVING UP IN CANADA WITH THE RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. FOCUS HAS ALSO SHIFTED TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF WHERE A BRIEF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. LOCALLY, DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE AS EVIDENCED BY BELOW NORMAL PWAT VALUES NEAR 1 TO 1.25
INCHES. BY TONIGHT, TROUGHING WILL HAVE LIFTED OFF TO THE EAST WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE IT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR STILL REMAINS
IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. DURING THIS TIME, AN ABNORMALLY LATE-SEASON WIND EVENT IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS DUE TO 850MB FLOW
EXCEEDING 40 KTS, THOUGH FROM THE WSW WITH LIMITED MOUNTAIN WAVE
ENHANCEMENT. SOME INITIAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO GET INTO THE AREA BY THE MORNING.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION WITH INCREASING UPPER-
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 50 TO 70 KT JET STREAK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA, INDICATIONS OF
OVERALL INSTABILITY HAVE LESSENED FROM SOME PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS,
INCLUDING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, 850MB FLOW IS
INDICATED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN BACK TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THE CURRENT CAMS
CURRENTLY DON'T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
THE FOCUS SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT PER NAM INDICATIONS SEEMS MORE LIKE SOMETHING SEEN IN
THE SPRING WITH 0-1KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KTS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN
THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE. ALSO, STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
PUSH PWAT VALUES TO 2 INCHES OR GREATER FROM THE REMNANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE. THIS PRESENTS INCREASING CONCERN FOR FLOODING, IN ADDITION
TO A DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF, SPIN-UP TORNADO. THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS RAIN CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME OTHER SOURCES, SUCH AS THE
GFS, SHOW LESS PHASING OF EVERYTHING AND MORE LIMITED OVERALL
IMPACT.
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTHWEST, LEADING TO MILDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, TROUGHING WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST,
PROMOTING HEIGHT RISES AND ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. BY
SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE
ANOTHER RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS, LIKELY MVFR BUT
POSSIBLY IFR AS WELL, LATER TONIGHT IN THE TN VALLEY. KCHA SEEMS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST ODDS OF SEEING THEM, BUT THEY WILL BE INVOF
KTYS AS WELL. KEPT KTYS IN VFR CONDITIONS AS MOST GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE CLOUDS BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL PICK UP TOMORROW WITH KCHA AND KTYS LIKELY SEEING GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT. GUST SIGNAL ISN'T QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AT KTRI SO I
DIDN'T ADD THEM IN THERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 88 73 86 / 0 0 30 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 88 73 87 / 10 0 20 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 87 73 87 / 10 0 30 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 87 68 88 / 10 0 10 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...CD
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