946
FXUS64 KMRX 170619
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
219 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH TODAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
BREEZY WINDS ALSO TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHEST GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN UP TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- A SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MORE
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
A DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WE BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS, A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MARKEDLY HIGHER, WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S FORECAST IN THE VALLEY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE, BRINGING INCREASED DEW POINTS AND GUSTY WINDS. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER, THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY, WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS
IT CROSSES MICHIGAN AND HEADS INTO ONTARIO, IT DEEPENS TO A 985 MB
CENTER OR SO. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL ONLY
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL
MORNING. GUSTS MAY BE STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU, SMOKIES, AND SOUTHWEST VA. GUSTS COULD RANGE FROM
25 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED UP TO 40 MPH VALUES.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (AS OF 11 PM EDT) WILL AID THE FIRST
PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW. IF IT BECOMES A NAMED
STORM BEFORE LANDFALL TODAY, IT'S EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS SOON AS IT
CROSSES LA INTO MS EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RIDE UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
RISE COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING, OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES,
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE PRESENT. THE WPC ERO OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS A SLGT OR AT LEAST 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING. THE SPC OUTLOOK AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION PAINTS SLGT
TO THE NORTH OR OVER SOUTHWEST VA, WITH MRGL FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE'S UNCERTAINTY WITH SEVERE AS THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH CLASHES WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EVENTUALLY
SINKING SOUTH. THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS WILL BE AN OVERNIGHT EVENT
INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVENTUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER FRIDAY WITH WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE A PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASING SUNDAY. CHANCES THEN CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY,
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR KNOXVILLE AND NORTH TO CONTINUE. A LOW STRATUS DECK AROUND 1K
FEET IN NORTHERN GA/AL IS SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD ARRIVE AT KCHA AROUND 9Z AND REDUCE CIGS TO AT LEAST LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON
STORM IN THE MIDWEST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VERTICAL PROFILE POST 03Z
TONIGHT, WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST BUT IF THE INVERSION SETS UP
WOULD HAVE TO INTRODUCE LLWS AT TYS AND TRI AROUND THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS WINDS ALOFT ARE STRENGTHENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 73 86 70 / 0 30 90 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 73 87 69 / 0 20 80 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 73 87 68 / 0 30 80 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 68 88 66 / 0 10 80 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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