892
FXUS64 KMRX 190001
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
801 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 756 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TN THROUGH 2 AM FRIDAY. A LOW-END
TORNADO RISK IN PLACE NORTH OF I-40.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VALLEY GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD GUST UP TO
AROUND 40 MPH.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MORE
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ALONG WITH ISOLATED FLOODING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
DRIFTING SOUTH OUT OF KY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED/CLOSE TO
THE COLD FRONT WILL POSE AN ISOLATED FLOODING RISK AS STORMS TRAIN
WEST TO EAST. AREAS ALONG THE TN/KY STATE LINE, NORTHEAST TN, AND
SOUTHWEST VA HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES TO SEE ISOLATED FLOODING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST VA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TN THROUGH 2 AM FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ALSO HAVE A LOW-END TORNADO
RISK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTED SOME WEAK AND BROAD ROTATION IN A CLUSTER OF STORMS
THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO
ENVIRONMENT, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE POOR. THIS WILL
HOPEFULLY HELP TO DETER ANY ROBUST UPDRAFTS WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT
OUR TORNADO THREAT. WEAK AND BROAD ROTATION WILL LIKELY BE SEEN IN
ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE RADAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL MOSTLY SKIRT JUST SOUTH OF US, EXITING
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA DRIES OUT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST WILL FILTER IN WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO SATURDAY. EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS UNDER A SHORTWAVE
BARRELING IN FROM THE MIDWEST REGION. A SECOND SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY
FOLLOWING IT. A FRONT FORECAST TO ARC ALONG THE GULF COAST TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AROUND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IMPACTED NEXT WEEK UNDER TROUGHINESS AND
DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS TRI WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES OR SO.
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AT THE OTHER TWO
SITES, IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 86 64 86 / 80 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 84 62 85 / 80 20 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 84 60 85 / 70 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 82 57 83 / 90 30 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
NORTHWEST CARTER-SULLIVAN.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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