349
FXUS64 KMRX 191825
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 224 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- AFTER SOME MORNING FOG, DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY,
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS. ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY MONDAY EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE BUT CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS, SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, MAINLY NEAR LAKES AND
RIVERS.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TAKES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MS/AL/GA
TOMORROW, WITH A BROAD TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NE
STATES, LEAVING OUR AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRY DAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY,
A LWO PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COME GREATER MOISUTURE AFVECTION
TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE NBM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB, WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PROVIDE LIFT. NBM POPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CUT
BACK FOR THIS REASON.
AN UPSTREAM MCS IN THE MID MS VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EAST, BUT IT MAY BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA IN THE MORNING. THE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COMES LATER IN THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING AS
BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE QUESTION IS IF THE MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS
WILL SUPPRESS INSTABILITY AND THUS THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. GIVEN
THE 850 MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT, THERE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR AIR
MASS DESTABILIZTION IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MLCAPE TO EXCEED 1500 J/KG.
NBM JOINT PROBABILITIES OF SBCAPE > 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR > 30 KT
IS AROUND 50% IN THE EVENING. SO THIS WILL BE A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A MENTION OF THIS WILL BE ADDED TO
THE HWO.
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST DAYS, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VARIABLE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH CLEAR SKIES
BY SUNSET. WINDS NEAR 10 KT AT TRI WILL DROP TO LIGHT OR NEAR CALM
WITH SUNSET AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG
AT TRI TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 86 65 89 / 0 0 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 86 64 88 / 0 0 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 83 60 88 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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