573
FXUS64 KMRX 210524
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO
OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ON SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGH TO OUR EAST, A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THAT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES OF RAIN
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON SUNDAY, DOWN TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS, WHICH MAKES SENSE AS CONVECTION ACROSS
MS/AL/GA IS LIKELY TO LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY CAPPED WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT TOMORROW.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK W TO E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND AID CONVECTION,
BUT THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY REMAIN
UNCLEAR. CAMS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW REMNANT MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS KY/WEST & MIDDLE TN WILL PLAY OUT, AND HOW MUCH
THAT MCS WILL WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. CAN THE AFTERNOON
AIR MASS DESTABILIZE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY?
WILL MORNING ACTIVITY LEAVE A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TO FOCUS
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT? SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS, WITH THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE. MLCAPE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 1000 J/KG
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL BE RETURNING TO NEAR 2 INCHES,
SO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY BE HEIGHTENED. WPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE AREA IN A SLGT CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING, WHILE SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. SO THE GENERAL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING CONTINUES, BUT
ADDITIONAL DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS POINT.
FOR TUESDAY ONWARD, PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN WILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES, AS A RESULT, WILL HOLD STEADY NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL. DEW POINTS COULD POSSIBLY REMAIN SUB 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS 10KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 72 87 71 / 20 50 90 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 72 86 69 / 10 40 100 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 89 71 85 68 / 10 60 100 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 66 86 66 / 0 40 100 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KRS
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