992
FXUS64 KMRX 230656
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 247 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL
EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATER
IN THE WEEK.
- A HOT AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE DIMINISHING BY
LATE TONIGHT. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE HOURS, BUT OVERALL THE THREAT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMISHED WITH RAINRATES TRENDING DOWN. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS, BUT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND A BIT WARMER
THAN TUESDAY, BUT STILL WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, AND THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER BUT LIKELY STILL DRY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVE FEATURES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW, THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE DETAILS ARE STILL
TOO MUCH IN FLUX FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORM CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK SIGNAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT COMBINED SHEAR/CAPE. THIS WILL OF COURSE BEAR WATCHING
AS WE GET CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA, WITH HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS VERY LOW FROM THIS
POINT ONWARD, SO MENTIONS HAVE BEEN OMITTED. LOW VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 TO
13 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 59 83 62 / 30 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 79 58 83 62 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 76 54 81 58 / 40 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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