062
FXUS64 KMRX 231710 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
110 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 108 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL
EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATER
IN THE WEEK.
- A HOT AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE DIMINISHING BY
LATE TONIGHT. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE HOURS, BUT OVERALL THE THREAT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED WITH RAIN RATES TRENDING DOWN. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS, BUT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND A BIT WARMER
THAN TUESDAY, BUT STILL WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, AND THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER BUT LIKELY STILL DRY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVE FEATURES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW, THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE DETAILS ARE STILL
TOO MUCH IN FLUX FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORM CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK SIGNAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT COMBINED SHEAR/CAPE. THIS WILL OF COURSE BEAR WATCHING
AS WE GET CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA, WITH HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS LIFTED TO VFR, BUT SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS REMAIN UNDER 3 KFT. EXPECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
BUT THE SCATTERED CLOUD COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AROUND SUNSET, AND THE
CLEARING MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. TRI IS THE MOST LIKELY SPOT
TO FOG, SO MVFR VIS WILL BE MENTIONED WITH AN IFR TEMPO. CANNOT
RULE OUT FOG AT TYS AND CHA, BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER THERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 85 66 89 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 83 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 83 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 81 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS
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