330
FXUS64 KMRX 240701
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 242 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
- PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TONIGHT.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATER
IN THE WEEK.
- A HOT AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WITH THE MOISTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
STILL LOOKS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A RATHER PLEASANT
DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN THEIR HANDLING
OF IT, BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING AT LEAST SOME HIGH AND/OR MID CLOUDS, AND MAY BRUSH
SOUTHERN OR WESTERN AREAS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE NBM
KEEPS THINGS DRY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVE FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW, THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE DETAILS ARE STILL
TOO MUCH IN FLUX FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORM CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A RELATIVELY WEAK SIGNAL
OVERALL FOR SIGNIFICANT COMBINED SHEAR/CAPE ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND MORE CLARITY ON ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL COME AS WE GET CLOSER.
SOME MODELS SHOW ONE MORE SHORT WAVE CLIPPING AT LEAST NORTHERN
AREAS SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN PROVIDE
DRIER AND QUITE HOT CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND
LIKELY BEYOND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TAFS. GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER IMPACTS WILL BE AT
TRI. HIGHER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT TYS AND CHA DUE TO LIGHT CIRRUS
STREAMING IN ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 66 89 70 / 0 0 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 63 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 62 88 68 / 0 0 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 58 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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