401
FXUS64 KMRX 250559
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
159 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON THURSDAY, THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY NEAR THE MS VALLEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO
REACH OUR AREA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT RIVER VALLEY FOG, BUT IF THE
CLOUDS STAY BROKEN, THE CHANCE OF FOG WILL BE LOW. WILL HAVE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS ALONG THE MAJOR RIVERS LATE TONIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER SOME HIGH/MID
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
THE CAMS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SW NC, ALTHOUGH THE NBM REMAINS DRY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALTHOUGH
THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVE FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR LOW
AT THIS TIME, AS ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS LOW PROBABILITIES OF COMBINED
SHEAR/CAPE. FRIDAY APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING WITH A PASSING TROUGH, WHILE SATURDAY APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
SHEAR BUT IN A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK FORCING. IT DOES SEEM
LIKELY THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
BOTH DAYS.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY,
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO OUR AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S WILL BE COMMON NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
PREDOMINANT VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCT CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR THE
PERIOD. BRIEF FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT TRI EARLY THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ALOFT AND AN AFTERNOON OF
DRYING OUT SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM BEING AS INTENSE OR PERSISTENT
AS THE PREVIOUS MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 70 90 73 / 10 10 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 68 90 73 / 10 0 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 88 67 90 72 / 10 0 30 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 64 90 69 / 10 0 40 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KRS
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