357
FXUS64 KMRX 251709 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
109 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY MAINLY NEAR MAJOR RIVERS AND LAKES LATE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A BIT SPOTTIER THAN LAST
NIGHT.
WE WILL SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND, AND THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
TIMES. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THIS OVERALL
PATTERN, BUT THE DETAILS OF THESE SHORT WAVES IS STILL VERY MUCH IN
FLUX.
THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS BUT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOK TO HAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALTHOUGH THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES LEAD TO
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE THE BIG
SWINGS AND DISAGREEMENTS IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, ENSEMBLE DATA
CONTINUES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A RELATIVELY WEAK SIGNAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT COMBINED SHEAR/CAPE AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THAT
LOOKS FAIRLY LOW OVERALL. THE SHEAR AND FORCING DO LOOK A BIT BETTER
NORTH THAN SOUTH, LEADING TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS
WILL HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAN SOUTHERN SECTIONS BOTH DAYS. DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING AS WE GET CLOSER.
MODELS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CLIPPING AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRIER AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AND LIKELY BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY RISE WELL INTO THE 90S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 100 AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 90 73 91 / 10 40 10 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 90 72 88 / 0 30 30 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 89 71 88 / 0 30 30 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 90 68 85 / 0 30 50 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS
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