852
FXUS64 KMRX 261741
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SOME FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OCCURS.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES MAY CLIMB ABOVE
100 DEGREES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ESPECIALLY BY MID NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY, CONNECTING TO A LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL START TO REBOUND TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WITH FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH, SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED NEAR THE
EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WITH TERRAIN
FORCING.
BY SATURDAY, A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, THE BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH STARTS TO SAG SOUTHWARD SLOWLY. WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING
CLOSER AND A SERIES OF MINOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN,
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE REGION IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY AND THAT SEEMS APPROPRIATE. INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
WITH DEW POINTS GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY. CAPE WILL BE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE, GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
BRINGING NOCTURNAL RAIN AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE AN ISSUE MAINLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IF TRAINING OCCURS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY.
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE NOW WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALSO, A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE
STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGHS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
HEAT INDEX NEAR 100 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX WILL BE CLIMBING
INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED STORMS ALREADY FORMING, BUT LOW
CHANCES FOR THEM TO IMPACT AN AIRPORT. HAVE GONE WITH PROB30
DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD. A SECOND ROUND WILL TRY AND
MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TIMING. IF A STORM DOES IMPACT AN AIRPORT RA OR TSRA IS MOST
LIKELY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 90 73 92 / 20 50 30 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 87 71 89 / 40 80 80 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 87 71 90 / 40 90 80 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 84 68 86 / 50 90 80 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page