980
FXUS64 KMRX 271158
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
758 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 744 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES ARE PROBABLE WHEREVER TRAINING OCCURS.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDICES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY
AND A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST CONNECTING TO A LOW IN THE
ROCKIES. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT WITH
NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT, SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO APPROACHING THIS EVENING, THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE REGION IS IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THAT SEEMS APPROPRIATE. INSTABILITY WILL
BE INCREASING WITH DEW POINTS GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE WILL BE AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS LOW TO MODERATE AROUND 20 KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE,
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH A RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST, NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
WILL BRING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. CAMS
SHOW THE FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY, ALTHOUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL LEAD
TO ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING
STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR
2 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MEDIUM ON FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SEND PROGRESSIVE WAVES OF
ACTIVITY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT TRAINING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UP TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE
STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 DEGREES IS
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH EXPECTED TO BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA TO TERMINALS LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CHA
BEING FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY, MAY MEAN LESSER OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THERE. EXTENDED PROB30 THROUGH 12Z. EXPECT CATEGORY
CHANGES UNDER HEAVIER PRECIP AND CIG CHANGES. SWLY WINDS AND
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE AT TYS AND TRI LATER TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 72 91 74 / 40 70 50 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 70 88 72 / 90 90 70 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 70 89 72 / 90 80 60 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 67 85 68 / 90 90 70 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...KS
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