928
FXUS64 KMRX 271714
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
114 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 113 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES ARE PROBABLE WHEREVER TRAINING OCCURS.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDICES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WANTED TO SEND OUT A QUICK MORNING UPDATE. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. THE 12Z CAMS ARE
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS THAT
ARE IN THE FLOOD WATCH THAT SEE LITTLE RAINFALL AND THEREFORE NO
FLOODING ISSUES. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE TRAINING OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME. THE FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING AND
GOES THROUGH 11 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY
AND A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST CONNECTING TO A LOW IN THE
ROCKIES. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT WITH
NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT, SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO APPROACHING THIS EVENING, THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE REGION IS IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THAT SEEMS APPROPRIATE. INSTABILITY WILL
BE INCREASING WITH DEW POINTS GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE WILL BE AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS LOW TO MODERATE AROUND 20 KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE,
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH A RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST, NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
WILL BRING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. CAMS
SHOW THE FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY, ALTHOUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL LEAD
TO ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING
STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR
2 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MEDIUM ON FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SEND PROGRESSIVE WAVES OF
ACTIVITY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT TRAINING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UP TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE
STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 DEGREES IS
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MESSY TAFS AND FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
MULTIPLEROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS
DROPPING DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER. AFTERNOON STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS, WHILE OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
IMPACTS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATIONS OF STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 91 74 95 / 70 50 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 88 72 91 / 90 70 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 89 72 92 / 80 60 30 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 85 68 90 / 90 70 20 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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