041
FXUS64 KMRX 281213
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
813 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRAINING STORMS MAY POSE A FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS NORTH OF I-40.
- SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS (MCS) MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S ARE LIKELY THIS COMING WORK
WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A TROUGH
IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS
OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST CONNECTING TO A LOW IN THE
ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL/IN/OH
AND IS PROJECTED TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO MOVEMENT THROUGH TODAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
FLOODING POTENTIAL INCREASING TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
LATEST RUN OF CAMS SHOW TRAINING STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH A SWATH OF HIGH RAIN TOTALS NORTH OF I-40. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (MCS) MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP TO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS UPSTREAM.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE
STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 DEGREES IS
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STRETCHES ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT THE SMOKIES TO THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU. TYS SITS AT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME. WITH TIME, PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
EVENTUALLY EXITING THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHA TO MOST
LIKELY STAY DRY AND VFR, BUT MAY HAVE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE EVERYTHING EXITS THE AREA. CIG AND VSBY
WILL VARY TO AS LOW AS IFR AT TYS AND TRI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A HEAVY SHOWER/STORM AND DURING BREAKS IN PRECIP. THINGS
CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE. MODELS INDICATE FOG AND
POSSIBLE LOW CIG THE LAST 6 HOURS OF TAF OR SO AT TYS AND TRI,
WITH TRI SHOWING POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 75 95 76 / 30 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 72 91 73 / 90 40 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 72 92 74 / 90 30 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 68 90 70 / 100 20 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH
SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT
VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...KS
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