041
FXUS64 KMRX 291150
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
750 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 740 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S ARE LIKELY THIS WEEK,
STARTING TODAY. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND TO JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES, TODAY. NO HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY, ENGULFING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS ALSO. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN VERY
ISOLATED THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND UPPER CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY BE TRACKING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT IS LOW BUT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT, MOVEMENT AND RAIN RATES WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY. PWAT
VALUES ARE STILL HIGH JUST UNDER 2 INCHES.
GUIDANCE SHOWS OVERNIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SETTING UP
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BETWEEN KNOXVILLE AND TRI-CITIES BY MID
MORNING. AGAIN, FLOODING POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT AREAS THAT ALREADY HAD
A LOT OF RAIN WILL BE MORE SENSITIVE. PWAT VALUES WILL BE DECLINING
IN THE MORNING HOURS CLOSER TO 1.6 INCHES. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY BY MORNING BUT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL TRAIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING ENTIRELY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE
STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE IN THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. GENERALLY, SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE 100 TO 104 DEGREES, JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY.
TOMORROW WILL BE EVEN WARMER AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WITH
HEAT INDICES LIKELY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO OR EXCEEDING
THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
CHA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY. TYS DIDN'T
SATURATE ALL THE WAY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS NOT FAR AWAY DID GET FOG. TRI IS CURRENTLY UNDER
1/4SM AND SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VERY
ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE NNW TODAY THAT MAY
PASS OVER TRI THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT OUT THE CHANCE AT TYS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH IT'S UNCERTAIN AT TRI AS WELL. CALM AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH MODELS HINTING AT FOG AGAIN AT TRI. AN
ADDITION OF AN IFR TEMPO 07-11Z THERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 96 76 97 77 / 0 0 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 74 94 75 / 20 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 92 74 95 75 / 20 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 90 70 93 71 / 20 0 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS
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