967
FXUS64 KMRX 302319 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
719 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 715 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, SOME MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- VERY HOT THIS WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
COMMON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS MULTIPLE DAYS.
- A SHORTWAVE MAY BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERING HIGHS SLIGHTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.,
BRINGING HOT CONDITIONS TO EAST TN. FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MINIMAL CAPPING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL OFFER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (MAINLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC
BORDER AND DRIFT SW, WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA AND THE NE TN
FOOTHILLS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN
IMPACTS BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. TOMORROW, THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
PRIMARILY TO SW N AND SE TN WHERE THE CAP MAY BE A BIT WEAKER,
THOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY COULD STILL SUPPORT STORMS IF TRIGGERED.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS VALLEYS TODAY,
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MUGGY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT
INDICES WILL FREQUENTLY HIT 100 OR HIGH IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS,
WITH SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 105 MID-WEEK. THE HEAT ADVISORY COVERS THE
IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HEAT SAFETY IS CRITICAL, MAKE SURE
TO STAY HYDRATED, LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DURING PEAK HEATING, AND
CHECK ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT, PROMOTING
MOSTLY DRY AND VERY HOT WEATHER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEER, ANY STORMS THAT DO POP UP, COULD
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ARE
LIKELY, CONTINUING THE HEAT WAVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS
COULD BRING SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND OFFER SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT, THROUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
FOG AT TRI WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT THIS PERIOD. WITH CLEAR/CALM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, FOG SEEMS LIKELY, BUT HOW LOW VIS WILL GO IS
UNCERTAIN. FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE, WILL FOLLOW MODEL GUIDANCE OF
IFR VIS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. LOWER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, AS IS USUAL FOR TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 77 97 77 99 / 0 20 10 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 95 74 96 / 0 10 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 75 95 75 97 / 0 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 95 71 97 / 0 0 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...CC
AVIATION...DGS
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