081
FXUS64 KMRX 011147
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
747 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 734 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE TN MOUNTAINS AND SW NC; SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS; HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY WAS RATHER SUBDUED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS AND SW NC, LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER CAP THAT INHIBITED
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR, WITH A
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY AND SW VA UNDER A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, BUT WITH SOME CONVECTION BREAKING THROUGH OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 300 MB LOW TRACKING FROM
THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
THAT WILL AID IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS GA/AL, AND POSSIBLY OUR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN SW NC AND THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY,
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH PLENTY OF CAPE TO FEED OFF OF,
CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THURSDAY LOOKS SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND THE MOUNTAINS HAVING THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WHERE CAPPING IS WEAKER ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE.
A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND OR ABOVE 100 WILL BE COMMON IN THE
AFTERNOONS, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 IN SOME SPOTS. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED ONE MORE DAY
INTO SATURDAY.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, WE SHOULD SEE A DOWNWARD TREND OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN POPS AS THE LARGE RIDGE BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST, ALLOWING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS EXPECTED. FOG CURRENTLY AT TRI SHOULDN'T
LAST TOO MUCH LONGER WITH THE SUN NOW UP. CHANCES RETURN THERE
TONIGHT, SO MVFR VSBY LINE ADDED. SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROB30 REMAINS AT CHA.
CERTAINTY IS A BIT LOW FOR IF TYS WILL SEE ANYTHING, BUT ADDED A
PROB30 THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE POSSIBLE CHANCE. MODELS HINT AT
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT CHA TONIGHT, BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THEY GET
PRECIPITATION TODAY FIRST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 98 77 99 76 / 20 10 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 95 75 96 74 / 10 10 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 96 75 97 75 / 0 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 95 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS
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