206
FXUS64 KMRX 021755
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN SE TN AND SW NC; SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100-105 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS; HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THAT SITS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION TODAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, ACROSS SW
NC/NORTHERN GA/NORTHERN AL. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL, WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG, BUT HOW MUCH THE CAP WILL HOLD BACK
DEVELOPMENT IS THE QUESTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP
THAT WILL LIKELY HOLD ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, WHILE AREAS SOUTH
WILL HAVE A WEAKER CAP. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL DO SO
QUICKLY AND VERY DEEP, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. HAIL WILL BE MAINLY SMALL BUT ISOLATED 1" HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS OUR SOUTHERN HALF IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE AGAIN, EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS FROM MICROBURSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND OR ABOVE 100 WILL COMMON IN THE AFTERNOONS, AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 IN SOME SPOTS.
WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS THE LARGE RIDGE GIVES WAY, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE
LOWER, SO THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY AT
THIS TIME. STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY IN THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MOST OF THEM DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD SEE A DOWNWARD TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN POPS AS THE LARGE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT EAST, ALLOWING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
LARGELY A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE 18Z CYCLE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE IMPACTED CHA. BASED ON LATEST CU FIELD
TRENDS, DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LEAVE A MENTION AT TYS.
BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TRI EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 99 77 98 75 / 30 20 50 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 96 74 96 73 / 10 10 40 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 97 75 98 74 / 10 10 40 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 97 71 98 70 / 0 0 30 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KRS
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