849
FXUS64 KMRX 030641
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
241 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 239 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON; SOME MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
REACHING 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS, THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- TEMPERATURES DROP TO NORMAL SUMMER VALUES WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL
DAILY RANDOM STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
AS A LEGENDARY DC CHARACTER FIRESTORM WOULD SAY, THE HEAT IS ON. AND
IT'S STILL ON. THE DOMINANT 500 MB RIDGE IS WITH US FOR ANOTHER DAY,
BEFORE IT GENERALLY WEAKENS UNTIL DISSOLUTION INTO THE MEAN FLOW.
ONCE THE DISSOLUTION OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND, WE'LL STEADILY EDGE
OFF THE WORST OF THE HEAT AND RETURN TO NORMAL SUMMER PATTERNS.
BEFORE WE CAN GET TO THE GREENER GRASS, WE HAVE FRIDAY AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY TO GO THROUGH WITH EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
TEMPERATURE. I'M NOT AS CONFIDENT ON US HITTING FORECAST NBM
TEMPERATURES TODAY, SO HEDGED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY. THE BIGGEST
INTERRUPTER ON HITTING THE HIGHS IS WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FIRES
BEFORE WE CAN OBTAIN PEAK HEATING. HRRR/RRFS BOTH HAVE HAD GOOD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR TODAY, WHICH LENDS MORE CREDENCE TO STORM
ACTIVITY THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS WHEN THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY QUIET.
THERE IS A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAY ALOFT, THIS FEATURE WAS
LOCATED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THURSDAY AND STORMS WERE ABLE TO
FIRE SUCCESSFULLY OVER THERE. PROBABLY THE LIMITED ON STORMS STILL
REMAINS THE STRONG 500 MB RIDGE, WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS. IT'S NOT A TRUE THERMAL CAP, BUT CLEARLY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OUTSIDE OF THE
UPSLOPE REGIME IN WESTERN CAROLINAS.
STORM WISE THE SAME ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE.
LOTS OF CAPE, LOTS OF DCAPE, EVEN HIGH TT INDEX NUMBERS FOR THE
ELDER WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS. IF TT IS NOT YOUR FLAVOR AND YOU'RE
LOOKING FOR A MORE COMPLEX INDEX, SWEAT HAS VALUES OF 400 IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY, INDICATIVE OF DECENT THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HAVING SAID ALL OF THAT METEOROLOGICAL JARGON,
I'M STILL NOT SOLD ON HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO REACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS AND THAT'S I THINK IN PART TO THE WARM 700 MB
TEMPERATURES AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
BETWEEN THE TWO AND WATCHING THE LAST TWO DAYS, I'D PROBABLY STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SKINNY UPDRAFTS PERIODICALLY FLIRTING WITH SEVERE
HEIGHT CRITERIA, BETTER ODDS IF UPDRAFTS CAN CONGEAL TO FORM A MORE
RESILIENT AND LARGER UPDRAFT WIDTH. JUST LIKELY MORE COVERAGE TODAY
AS I'VE ALREADY MENTIONED.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A TAD "COOLER". OUR TWO FAVORITE CAMS HAVE
LESS, BUT STILL PRESENT DIURNAL COVERAGE, AND THE STORM RISKS ARE
THE SAME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. GOOD NEWS IS GENERALLY
STORMS COLLAPSE IN THESE DIURNAL PATTERNS WITH SUNSET, AND THUS AS
LONG AS YOUR FIREWORKS SHOW IS AFTER DARK, IT'S UNLIKELY TO HAVE A
CONFRONTATION WITH NATURE'S SPARKLERS. HOPEFULLY.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE LOSS OF THE PROMINENT RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
A DECREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL RANGES, AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES A CONTINUED DAILY PATTERN OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY, WITH
POTENTIALLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE EDGING INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION BY
MIDWEEK. NOTHING PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT ON THE HORIZON, JUST
REGULAR JULY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BETTER COVERAGE THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
PROB30 GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR ALL 3 SITES, BUT A VCTS WAS
ADDED INTO CHA BASED ON BETTER POTENTIAL COVERAGE AROUND THAT
SITE. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS, VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 98 75 97 75 / 50 10 20 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 96 74 95 74 / 40 20 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 97 74 96 73 / 30 20 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 96 70 96 70 / 30 10 20 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BW
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